Jim Cramer's Mad Money Review

Stocks extended losses as after unexpected oil inventory drawdowns. Stocks lowered 8 times in the last 11 sessions. S&P down .1% for 2007, Dow up 3.1%, Nasdaq up 5.7%. Most of the airlines were down for the week. Latin America was also hit very hard today. Higher oil prices are approaching historic lows hitting $99.29 today. Oil inventories down 1.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization is at 87%. Crude imports dropped 700,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories up 200,000 barrels. Heating oil is up right now, which is really key. Heating oil could go up 20%. What will this mean for consumers? How to play defense against this? JJ Burns says structured investments give you a barrier protection on the upside and downside to this market. Dow leaders today are coca-cola, 3M, Boeing, Proctor & Gamble. Financials were way down today. Citigroup, FreddieMac, and JPMorgan were at 52 week lows. Crude oil came in at just $97 this afternoon, showing that some are taking profits off the table expecting oil to hit that $100 mark. Nariam Behravesh was on the show to discuss oil and the implications. He says if it comes down in the next few weeks or month, we should be ok. But if it keeps going up we could be in trouble. They also said that consumers might not feel the pressure until oil gets up around $140-150 a barrel. Consumers with larger vehicles are most affected when they have to spend $100 to fill up their tank every time. Dennis Kneale said that high oil prices have no affect on fueling inflation. Retail names have also suffered tremendously in the past month or so. Morgan Stanley Retail index has fell 10% this month to a 2-year low. In November we should expect pent-up demand, unseasonally seasonal, 06 was weak, and what's not to hate. Retail saving may not be good, but stocks could be fine. Pick your retailers carefully. Exxon Mobil is a name benefiting with oil going up. Google is also performing well right now. Some speculate that the weak dollar is responsible for some of these drops. TJ Marta thinks the dollar weakness is a historic multi-generational crisis and reflects the fact the foreign investors have lost confidence in the US market. They think our market is liquid and transparent, but it becoming less of each. Steve Liesman says the balance in the trade deficit needs to readjust. The US dollar is down 16% this year against basket of major currencies. It hit a record low against the Euro on Tuesday. FED thinks US growth will slow in 2008 between 1.8% and 2.5%. California has been hurt greatly with the number of homes sold. Jane Wells said Countrywide Finl. Is down 10%, but is projected to be profitable this quarter. They have joined other lenders to cut a deal with people who are about to see their subprime mortgage rates plummet. There are also many lawsuits brought against them for outrageous fees. Continental Air started to move up toward the end of the show. Jeff Krumpelman recommends buying Intel (INTC). They are hiking the dividend which comforts investors. 80% of their revenues come from outside the US. They have a competitive edge over AMD. He also says buy Microchip (MCHP). Final Thoughts: Be skeptical but have hope. The bad affects have not happened yet relating to the weak dollar. It is the fear that is making us worry. It has contributed to the higher price of oil

Labels: 3M Co., Citigroup Inc., CNBC, CNBC's The Call, Crude Oil, DOW, GOOG, JP Morgan Chase and Co., Nasdaq, The Call

The Dow closed down 218 points and the Nasdaq fell 43 points on Monday. Finerman sees storm clouds are everywhere and the Goldman downgrade of Citigroup (C) really hurt the markets. Najarian had a fun day trading. He also thinks the financial sector is in big trouble and he is extremely worried about General Motors (GM) which fell below $27.
Louise Yamada, a highly ranked technician on Wall Street, joined the show to discuss her analysis on the technicals of the market. She is currently worried that the S&P 500 could break 1406, which would signal to her an end of the longer-term uptrend. Yamada is still bullish on Cisco Systems (CSCO) and she would look to buy pullbacks on the name. She looked at the chart on Broadcom (BRCM) calling it a sell because it hasn't followed through after a false break-out. The chart on Coca-Cola (KO) is initiating an uptrend according to Yamada, so she would be a buyer of KO. Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) should be sold.
Retail
Nordstrom (JWN) reported a 22% rise in third-quarter profits helped by an extra week of sales.
Sears Holdings (SHLD) disclosed it has taken a 13.7% stake in Restoration Hardware (RSTO) and the possibility of proposing an acquisition.
Target (TGT) is set to report earnings Tuesday before the opening bell.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) clocked a 28% jump in profits off of strong notebook sales.
Medtronic (MDT) reported a 2% decline in profits, but the stock trades 3% higher after hours.
Lowe's (LOW) dropped 7% after reporting a 10% decline in profits due to the weak housing market.
Celgene (CELG) bought Pharmion (PHRM) for $2.9 billion. Adami thinks that Phizer must make a similar acquisition.
EchoStar (DISH) shares exploded higher Monday after Citigroup said there was a 65% chance that AT&T (T) will buy DISH.
Ultimate Fighting is now the fasting growing spectator sport in the United States. Macke says look for growth in cable companies and satellite companies like Viacom (VIA) and EchoStar. He also thinks makers of energy drinks like Coca-Cola will benefit. He said avoid the World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) because the UFC is taking share. Lastly, Macke speculated that Anheuser-Busch (BUD) could be near a beverage deal with the UFC.
Pops & Drops
Pops - Xerox (XRX) traded up 2%.
Intercontinental Exchange traded up 3%
VeriSign (VRSN) traded up 2%.
Drops - E*TRADE (ETFC) fell 13% even with speculation of a takeover by Ameritrade (AMTD)
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) fell 7%
Genesco (GCO) plunged 24%.
Disney (DIS) fell 4%
General Motors (GM) fell 8% after the automaker announced plans for year-end discounts to clear out inventory.
Dillard's (DDS) fell 5%.
Tween Brands (TWB) fell 13%
Final Trade
Macke would purchase Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) and Target on any selloff Tuesday
Najarian advises buying EchoStar (DISH) on a pullback under $44.
Finerman is long Goldman Sachs Group (GS) and short Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH).
Adami recommends Vodafone Group (VOD) for a play on China.

Labels: BBBY, BRCM, CELG, Citigroup Inc., CNBC, CNBC's Fast Money, CSCO, DISH, Dow Jones, Fast Money Recap, GM, HPQ, JWN, KO, LOW, MDT, Nasdaq, PHRM, SHLD, TGT

Major U.S. stock indexes fell nearly 2 percent on Friday after heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar Inc cut its profit forecast and warned the housing slump was spilling over into other parts of the economy.
With investors mindful of the 20th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash, the Dow and the S&P tumbled as Caterpillar said the U.S. economy will be "near to, or even in, recession" next year.
Caterpillar also said several of the key U.S. industries it serves were already in recession.
The bleak comments from the economic bellwether, whose stock fell 5.4 percent, helped drag down the shares of other big manufacturers, including 3M Co. , and contributed to investors' shift from stocks to the relative safety of U.S. government debt.
A drop in revenue at Schlumberger Ltd , the world's largest oil service company, sent its shares down 10.4 percent. Energy companies such as Exxon Mobil fell, as oil prices retreated from record highs.
"It's been a pretty tough day," said Linda Duessel, market strategist at Federated Investors, in Pittsburgh. "People are saying there could be a recession because Caterpillar gave some cautionary comments."
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 282.80 points, or 2.04 percent, at 13,606.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 29.85 points, or 1.94 percent, at 1,510.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 53.76 points, or 1.92 percent, at 2,745.55.
Shares of 3M Co fell 7.3 percent to $87.85 on worries about falling profits in the LCD television market. Caterpillar fell 5.6 percent to $73.32. Investors watch large manufacturers like 3M and Caterpillar for clues on the strength of the U.S. economy.
The S&P financial index <.GSPF> was on track for its first weekly drop since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Sept. 18 -- a cut that was meant, in part, to allay concerns about the effects of the credit crunch.
Wachovia Corp , the fourth-largest U.S. bank, posted a 10 percent drop in quarterly profit, hurt by $1.3 billion of write-downs at its investment banking unit as credit markets tightened. Wachovia fell 2.8 percent to $46.81 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Exxon Mobil Corp shares dropped 2.3 percent to $92.89 as U.S. crude shed 86 cents to $88.61 after rising to a record $90.07 a barrel overnight. Schlumberger shares dropped 10.4 percent, or $11.62, to $100.00.
The market's decline coincided with the 20th anniversary of "Black Monday," when the Dow industrials fell nearly 23 percent on Oct. 19, 1987.
Published by Reuters

Labels: CAT, Dow Jones, MMM, Nasdaq, NYX, SLB, Wall Street, WB, XOM

The nation's manufacturing sector expanded at a slower-than-expected rate in September, suggesting there's room for the Federal Reserve to consider another rate cut later this month.
The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group based in Tempe, Ariz., said Monday that its manufacturing index registered 52.0 in September, down from 52.9 in August. It was the lowest reading since the gauge was at 50.9 last March.
Analysts had expected a reading of at least 52.5.
A reading of 50 or more indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
Optimistic that a rate cut is likely, investors pushed the Dow Jones industrial average up 148.59, or 1.07 percent, to 14,044.22 in afternoon trading. The blue-chip index surpassed its closing record of 14,000.41 set in mid-July, rising as high as 14,056.09.
Broader market indexes also rose sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 15.25, or 1.00 percent, to 1,542.00; and the Nasdaq composite index rose 29.22, or 1.08 percent, to 2,730.72.
Source: Eileen Alt Powell, AP Business Writer

Labels: Blue Chips, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing Sector, Nasdaq

U.S. stock futures fluctuated Monday, paring earlier gains after Citigroup Inc. forecast a steep decline in third-quarter profit.
Citigroup estimated earnings will decline 60 percent from a year ago due to turmoil in the mortgage-backed securities and credit markets. In a statement, Chairman and Chief Executive Charles Prince called the expected results "a clear disappointment."
Investors also awaited key data on the health of the manufacturing sector. The Institute for Supply Management is expected to report that manufacturing activity grew at roughly the same rate in September as in August, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Financial. Later in the week, investors will watch for readings on the health of the service sector and employment.
Dow Jones industrial average futures for December rose 6, or 0.04 percent, to 14,000. Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose 1.20, or 0.08 percent, to 1,539.30. Nasdaq 100 index futures were unchanged at 2,114.00.
European stock markets were narrowly mixed after Citigroup's profit warning compounded bad news from UBS AG. The largest Swiss bank said Monday it expects a pretax loss of up to $690 million in the third quarter, due mainly to writedowns related to deteriorating conditions in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. UBS said the loss will result in the elimination of 1,500 jobs from the bank's work force of 80,000 by year end.
Credit Suisse Group followed the UBS statement with its own, saying that it expects to report a third-quarter profit of about $860 million despite the quarter's stormy conditions.
In other corporate news, drug store chain Walgreen Co. reported fiscal fourth-quarter profit fell 4 percent on lower reimbursements for some generic drugs and higher store and labor costs.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was mixed against major currencies but hovered near its low against the euro, which bought a record $1.4283 in trading overnight. Oil prices slipped in electronic pre-opening trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while gold prices rose. A barrel of light, sweet crude fell 29 cents to $81.37. An ounce of gold added 90 cents to $750.90.
Source: Lauren Villagran, AP Business Writer

Labels: C, CS, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, UBS, WAG

Wall Street built on its gains Wednesday as investors bet that the cheaper money the Federal Reserve unleashed with its decision to cut interest rates will give a boost to corporate profits and the overall economy.
The rise in stocks for a second day appeared to reassure some investors that Tuesday's huge advance was based on reasonable optimism and amounted to more than a one-day pop. A mild reading of the Labor Department's August consumer price index, which slipped 0.1 percent, offered support for the Fed's decision to focus on the economy and set aside some of its concerns about inflation. Further, the Commerce Department's report that new home construction fell for the third month in a row in August offered fresh evidence that the housing market is still struggling.
Wall Street, focusing on the Fed's move to lower the target federal funds rate to 4.75 percent from 5.25 percent, was able to again look past a continued rise in energy prices. Oil settled at a fresh record Wednesday.
The Dow Jones industrials rose 76.17, or 0.55 percent, to 13,815.56. While the Dow finished well off its highs of the session, the gains nevertheless came a day after a jump of nearly 336 points -- its biggest one-day point gain in nearly five years.
Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 9.25, or 0.61 percent, to 1,529.03. The Nasdaq composite index rose 14.82, or 0.56 percent, to 2,666.48.
Source: Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

Labels: CFC, Crude Oil, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, MS, Nasdaq, Oil Futures

A jubilant Wall Street barreled higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected half a percentage point. The Dow Jones industrial average surged more than 250 points after the Fed announced its move.
Although some investors hoped for a large rate cut, most were betting on a smaller quarter percentage cut in the federal funds rate. The Fed responded to the spreading impact of credit market problems on the rest of the economy by saying, "the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing (market) correction and to restrain economic growth more generally." The Fed cut the benchmark federal runds rate to 4.75 percent after keeping it unchanged for more than a year. The Dow soared 251.35, or 1.88 percent, at 13,654.77.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 32.57, or 2.21 percent, to 1,509.22, while the Nasdaq composite index gained 54.87, or 2.13 percent, to 2,636.53.

Labels: Ben Bernanke, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Nasdaq

Stocks slipped in early trading Tuesday as investors interpreted comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as suggesting the central bank has little reason to lower interest rates. Bernanke's speech spurred traders to sell a day after the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up to new highs. Bernanke's forecast of rebounding growth, as well as his comments that inflation is "ebbing" but remains "somewhat elevated," made it appear unlikely the Fed will lower rates anytime soon, a disappointment for Wall Street.
Later Tuesday morning, investors will be examining the Institute for Supply Management's May index on non-manufacturing industries. According to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Thomson Financial, the market expects the index to hold steady at 56.0, the same reading as in April. In the first hour of trading, the Dow fell 58.11, or 0.42 percent, to 13,618.21.
Broader stock indicators were also lower. The S&P 500 index lost 6.13, or 0.40 percent, to 1,533.05, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 9.18, or 0.35 percent, to 2,609.11.
Bonds slipped after Bernanke's comments, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rising to 4.94 percent from 4.93 percent late Monday.
The dollar was lower against other major currencies, while gold prices edged higher.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was down 3.70, or 0.43 percent, to 851.39.
Source: AP

Labels: Ben Bernanke, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Stocks

Stocks snapped this week's rally, as a mixed batch of earnings reports led some traders to take profits after two weeks of gains in the Dow Jones industrials.
Investors pulled back after Yahoo Inc. posted a surprising 11 percent drop in its first-quarter profit. Also making investors shudder were disappointing results from International Business Machines Corp. and Motorola Inc.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. gave some support to the Dow after the bank reported a 55 percent jump in profits that far surpassed Wall Street's expectations. The 30 companies that make up the index -- nearly half of which report earnings this week -- have been mostly beating the Street's predictions.
Wall Street was rattled by a sharp drop in the dollar, which is now at 26-year lows against the British pound. The U.S. currency has been weakening because interest rates have remained steady since the summer, and because the U.S. economy is slowing. In midmorning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 18.94, or 0.15 percent, to 12,754.10. The Dow has advanced in 12 of the past 13 sessions.
Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 2.13, or 0.14 percent, at 1,469.35, and the Nasdaq composite index shed 11.72, or 0.47 percent, to 2,505.23.

Labels: Dow Jones, IBM, JPM, MOT, Nasdaq, YHOO

Stocks rose in cautious trading Thursday following warnings of lackluster retail sales and a greater-than-expected increase in weekly jobless claims.
Retailers' reports on sales at stores open at least a year, an important measure known as same-stores sales, concerned some investors because of scattered warnings that sales would be light during April.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level in two months. The Labor Department's weekly report, which Wall Street often regards as a volatile number, showed applications for jobless benefits totaled 342,000 last week.
After falling earlier, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 5.85, or 0.05 percent, in morning trading to 12,490.47.
Broader stock indicators also gained after being down in the first 90 minutes of trading. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 2.12, or 0.15 percent, to 1,440.99, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 7.27, or 0.30 percent, to 2,466.58.
Bonds advanced amid concerns of weaker corporate profits. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.72 percent from 4.74 percent late Wednesday. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
The small moves Thursday follow a pullback Wednesday prompted by minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting that showed the central bank remains concerned enough about inflation that it won't rule out an increase in interest rates.
Higher oil prices weighed on stocks. On Wednesday, weekly government figures showed a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline stockpiles. Light, sweet crude rose 92 cents to $62.91 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Labels: Dow Jones, Jobless Claims, Nasdaq, Oil Prices, Wall Street

Wall Street rose cautiously in early trading Monday amid a batch of takeover deals, and as investors speculated that manufacturing data will suggest slightly slower growth in the sector.
Investors were encouraged after a number of big acquisitions were announced before the market opened. Among them was private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.'s deal to take credit card transaction processor First Data Corp. private for about $29 billion.
Further direction about the economy could come with the 10 a.m. EDT release of the Institute for Supply Management's March index of the nation's manufacturing activity. The market is expecting a reading of 51.0, down from 52.3 in February but still indicating growth in the sector. A lower figure could cause a sell-off, especially given that last week's Chicago regional manufacturing index came in strong.
In the first hour of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 23.40, or 0.19 percent, to 12,377.75.
Broader stock indicators were also higher। The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 2.39, or 0.17 percent, at 1,423.25, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 5.12, or 0.21 percent, to 2,426.76.
Published by Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer

Labels: Dow Jones, FDC, Nasdaq

Stocks opened higher Monday as Wall Street looked to rising stocks overseas and a falling yen as it tried to bounce back from a losing week.
The advance came ahead of a report on home sales as well as a reading on manufacturing in the Midwest. The economic data arrive before the start Tuesday of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on interest rates.
While few expect the Fed will adjust short-term interest rates, investors will be looking for any change in the central bank's posture that could hint at where rates are headed in the coming months.
In the first hour of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 79.87, or 0.66 percent, to 12,190.28.
Broader stock indicators also moved sharply higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 9.97, or 0.72 percent, to 1,396.92, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 15.58, or 0.66 percent, to 2,388.24.
Bonds fell as stocks made gains. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.57 percent from 4.55 percent late Friday. The dollar wax mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell. The dollar rose to 117.34 yen from 116.73 yen late Friday.
Economic data will again loom large on Wall Street in the coming week as investors try to determine whether the economy can pull off a so-called soft landing or whether areas of weakness such as the housing sector are poised to drag the economy into a pronounced slowdown.
On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders expects to release its index on builders' perceptions of new single-family home sales and near-term sales prospects on Monday. Also, the Chicago Fed is expected to report that its manufacturing index rose 0.3 percent in February.
Concerns about the economy and areas such as the subprime mortgage lending sector, which makes a business of making loans to people with poor credit, helped push stocks lower last week. The Dow industrials fell 1.35 percent, the S&P 500 gave up 1.13 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index slid 0.62 percent.
In corporate news, ServiceMaster Co., a provider of housecleaning, landscaping, and pest-control services, agreed to be acquired by an investment group for about $4.48 billion. The deal, led by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice Inc., has a value of $5.5 billion when including about $1.02 billion in debt. The company said in late November it was considering a change in its strategy.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 6.26, or 0.80 percent, to 785.03.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.59 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 1.65 percent, and the sometimes volatile Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.87 percent despite an increase in interest rates in China. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.52 percent, Germany's DAX index added 1.04 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 0.89 percent.
Published by Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer

Labels: Dow Jones, Hot Stocks, Nasdaq, SVM

Stocks opened moderately lower Monday as further cracks appeared in the subprime lending sector, stirring concerns that a blowup among companies making loans to consumers with poor credit will spill over to other sectors.
A warning from New Century Financial Corp. early Monday about its financial woes overshadowed merger news, which often gives a boost to enthusiasm on Wall Street.
The renewed concerns about subprime lenders follow a relatively successful week on Wall Street. Stocks etched out gains last week U.S. and overseas markets managed to regain some sense of stability following a sharp pullback that began Feb. 27. Even amid the gains seen last week, however, concerns about subprime lenders weighed on investors.
In the opening minutes of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.28, or 0.04 percent, to 12,271.04.
Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 1.19, or 0.08 percent, to 1,401.66, and the Nasdaq composite index 0.95, or 0.04 percent, to 2,386.60.

Labels: Dow Jones, Hot Stocks, Nasdaq, NEW

One of the more intriguing arguments making the rounds in the blogosphere is that the stock market is jinxed in years ending in "7."
I've ignored the arguments up until now, but no longer. For this column I submit to several rigorous statistical tests the notion that the stock market performs any worse than average when the calendar years ends with the number seven.
Not to bury my lead too much: I found little statistical support for this notion.
That is not the conclusion one reaches on first blush, however. Using the database constructed by Prof. Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, which extends back to 1802, I found that the average year ending in "7" produced a lower return than any other.
But this outcome is being driven by a relatively few years, as became evident when I looked at the results by decade. The decade-by-decade ranking of years ending in "7" varied quite widely.
For example, though in no decade was the year ending in "7" the most profitable, there were four in which it was the second most profitable - out of the 19 full decades since the early 1800s. And there were two additional decades one of which was the decade of the 1990s, in fact - in which it was the third most profitable year. So in a third of the decades, the years ending in "7" were either the third or the second most profitable.
To be sure, there were other decades in which the year ending in "7" was the least profitable year - four since the early 1800s, in fact. And there two others in which it was the next-to-least most profitable year.
The picture that is painted by all these results together is admittedly a complicated one. But I don't see how one can, with any degree of statistical confidence, conclude from them that 2007 will be a bad year for the market.
Perhaps in recognition of this complexity, some bloggers have recently taken to advancing an alternative version of the original argument. In its newer incarnation, the argument is that the stock market usually undergoes a significant market break in the seventh year of the decade - particularly as measured from the stock market's high of the previous year.
To test this argument, I needed daily market data rather than the monthly and yearly data that are provided in Siegel's database. So I turned to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:^DJI - News), which was created in the late 1800s, more than 110 years ago. For each year since then, I calculated the percentage drop from the prior year's high to that year's low.
The average for years ending in "7" - a drop of 22.6% might look worrisome. But it isn't really. That's because it is almost always the case that the stock market's low in a given year is lower than the previous year's high. In fact, the average for all years since 1896 is a drop of 18.7%. Given the volatility of the data, the difference between 22.6% and 18.7% is not statistically significant.
But even if you are inclined to ascribe statistical significance to the results, you should know that there are three other years - those ending in "0", "1", and "8" - for which the average drop from the previous year's high to that year's low is greater than for years ending in "7."
The bottom line: The stock market may perform poorly this year. But, I submit, if it does it will have nothing to do with the fact that this year is one that ends with the number "7."
Published by MarketWatch

Labels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Stocks

Wall Street surged higher Wednesday, hurtling the Dow Jones industrials past 12,500 for the first time as yearend bargain hunters picked up stocks across a variety of sectors.
The auto industry was in focus after a meeting between executives at Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co. sparked hope about a potential alliance between the two rivals. Shares of both companies moved sharply higher.
Further takeover activity lent support to the overall market after McClatchy Co. announced late Tuesday it agreed to sell the Star Tribune newspaper in Minneapolis to a private equity fund. Also, graphics communication company Cenveo Inc. agreed to buy rival Cadmus Communications Corp.
But investors looking to buff up their portfolios by year's end were behind most of the gains.
"What you're seeing is window dressing, people want to finish up the year looking like they own the best names," said Philip S. Dow, managing director of equity strategy at RBC Dain Rauscher. "And for those that missed the market, they're trying to put their cash to work and play catch-up. You've got momentum on your side this year."
The session was again marked by thin volume typical of the week between Christmas and New Year's. The New York Stock Exchange began the session with two minutes of silence as a tribute to President Gerald Ford, while the Nasdaq Stock Market had a similar observance later in the morning.
According to preliminary calcuations, the Dow rose 102.94, or 0.83 percent, to 12,510.57. The index hit a record trading level of 12,519.22 earlier in the session.
Broader stock indicators also advanced. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 9.94, or 0.70 percent, at 1,426.84, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 17.71, or 0.73 percent, to 2,431.22.

Labels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq

UTStarcom (NASDAQ:UTSI - News) announced that the company was undergoing an SEC investigation for trading by unnamed third parties. UTSI's PowerRating is 4.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT - News) announced a $635 million deal to help upgrade the Turkish Air Force. LMT's PowerRating is 5.
Par Pharmaceutical (NYSE:PRX - News) announced that the FDA approved its new drug, Ondansetron ODT, which is a generic drug used to battle nausea associated with chemotherapy. PRX's PowerRating is 5.
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN - News) announced that the 2006 Christmas shopping season was the company's "best ever." The orders for December 11th alone topped 4 million separate items. AMZN's PowerRating is 5.
Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM - News) and Perry Ellis (NASDAQ:PERY - News) have both scheduled a 3:2 stock split for Friday, December 29. IRM's PowerRating is 5, and PERY's PowerRating is 6.
Learning Tree (NASDAQ:LTRE - News) is the only major stock reporting earnings next week. LTRE is expected to report $0.03 EPS on Thursday.
PowerRatings are courtesy of PowerRatings.net

Labels: AMZN, IRM, LMT, LTRE, Nasdaq, NYSE Group, PERY, PRX, UTSI

12:00 pm : After three straight days of declines, stocks continue to recover some lost ground midday. However, with today's action shaping up to be the quietest session of the year in terms of volume, there is little conviction behind today's recovery efforts.
In fact, the lack of any specific news catalysts (i.e. no earnings reports or notable economic data) has left a sell-off in oil prices as one of the biggest reasons for investors to jump back into stocks today. As a reminder, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% last week, the biggest five-day decline since July, amid concerns about slowing economic growth.
Crude for February delivery is now 2.5% and below $61/bbl amid speculation Iran won't curtail oil shipments after the U.N. said it will impose sanctions on Iran for not ending its nuclear program. While the subsequent reversal in Energy has removed some notable leadership, the sector's 0.4% decline pales in comparison from an earnings potential standpoint than the impact a $2 reversal in crude futures from morning highs has had on investor psyche.
Also, with the Fed recently saying that some inflation risks remain, and since high oil prices still have the potential to sustain inflation pressures, the aggressive pullback in oil prices has been welcome news for consumers, especially those expected to run out in droves this week to take advantage of post-holiday discounts and redeem gift cards.
The National Retail Federation expects sales during November and December to rise 5% to $457 bln, which is lower than last year's 6.1% increase for the same period. However, the N.R.F. also said it believes gift card sales will total nearly $25 bln this holiday season, which is $6 bln more than last year. BTK +0.4% DJ30 +37.33 DJTA +0.4% DJUA +0.5% DOT +0.1% NASDAQ +6.87 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.7% SOX +0.9% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +3.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1133/1732/422 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 989/2189/294 mln
11:30 am : More of the same for stocks as buyers remain in control of the early action. Nine out of 10 sectors are still in positive territory, but instead of Energy's leadership pacing the way like it did at the onset of trading amid higher oil prices, further deterioration in the commodity has pushed Energy into the red. Energy's reversal, though, has left room for bargain hunters to jump back into a select number of retailers, leading to a turnaround in Consumer Discretionary. The latter is also getting a lift from the rate-sensitive homebuilding group as thin trading in the bond market pushes yields modestly lower across the curve. DJ30 +33.44 NASDAQ +7.89 SP500 +3.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1057/1739/336 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1029/2074/224 mln
11:00 am : The indices continue to sport modest gains as the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. One sector that is relinquishing almost all of its early leadership, though, is Energy, which now boasts an advance of only 0.1%. Fortunately for the bulls, a renewed wave of profit taking in energy stocks has come at the expense of a more than 2.0% sell-off in oil prices. After pushing $63/bbl earlier, crude for February delivery is now near $61/bbl amid speculation Iran won't actually curtail its oil shipments after the U.N. said it will impose sanctions on Iran for not ending its nuclear program. A 6% decline in natural-gas futures, amid continued forecasts of above-average temperatures diminishing the demand for heating oil, may also be adding to the recent spike to the downside in crude. Oil & Gas Equipment (-1.0%), Drillers (-0.6%) and Oil & Gas Storage (-0.5%) are now among today's 10 worst performing S&P industry groups.DJ30 +20.99 NASDAQ +3.56 SP500 +2.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1087/1685/278 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 957/2105/182 mln
10:30 am : Not much has changed since the last update as the major averages settle into a relatively narrow trading range. Oil prices recently turning negative without sacrificing anything in the way of leadership from the Energy sector continue to lend support to this morning's rebound. However, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly checking in with a negative reading to indicate contraction, despite being among the least influential of the manufacturing surveys, has taken some steam out of early buying efforts within the economically-sensitive Industrials sector. DJ30 +24.93 NASDAQ +5.16 SP500 +3.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 965/1727/190 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 802/2119/118 mln
10:00 am : All three major averages are now in positive territory, but the renewed wave of buying interest so far has not been enough to make a significant change in the standings. The Industrials and Health Care sectors recently turning positive are among the most noticeable reasons for the market's improvement; but with both sectors clinging to the smallest of gains, Energy's 0.6% advance and a 0.3% gain in Technology are currently acting as the biggest sources of support for stocks. Consumer Discretionary, Staples and Utilities are the only three sectors in the red.DJ30 +25.34 NASDAQ +5.87 SP500 +3.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1055/1366/82 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1111/1449/42 mln
09:40 am : As expected, stocks open with little fanfare, kicking off what is expected to be a relatively quiet day of trading on light volume. The absence of any specific news catalysts (i.e. no earnings reports or notable economic data scheduled) is adding to the lack of conviction on the part of both buyers and sellers. An underlying sense that stocks remain overbought on a short-term basis, oil prices pushing $63/bbl and mixed reviews as to what this year's holiday shopping figures say about the health of the consumer are also acting as an early overhang following last week's consolidation efforts amid economic growth concerns.DJ30 +3.93 NASDAQ -1.71 SP500 +0.60 NASDAQ Vol 52 mln NYSE Vol 20 mln
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.3. The stage remains set for the cash market to open on a cautious note. While retailers will be among today's most active stocks, amid expectations that additional discounts will be announced this week to help them lock in gift card sales, reports that Microsoft (MSFT) is finding potentially serious flaws with Vista is keeping the influential Tech sector in focus as well.
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. The futures market is still languishing below fair value, suggesting Friday's losses will carry over into today's open and kick off a holiday-shortened week with an added sense of uncertainty. As a reminder, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% last week, the biggest five-day decline since July, amid concerns about slowing economic growth. Thus, the absence of potentially upbeat earnings and economic data to set a more positive underlying tone is also acting as a constraint in the early going.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Early indications are pointing to a sluggish start for stocks. However, with many investors still on vacation and volume expected to be light, there is little conviction on the part of sellers. Crude oil prices flirting with $63/bbl and Wall Street getting wind of reports showing that last-minute holiday shopping missed forecasts are contributing to the early sense of reserve among buyers.
06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.7.
06:26 am : FTSE...6190.00...+6.30...+0.1%. DAX...6503.13...-70.83...-1.1%.
06:26 am : Nikkei...17169.19...+76.30...+0.5%. Hang Seng...19320.52...+97.68...+0.5%.

Labels: FTS, MSFT, Nasdaq

The London Stock Exchange (LSE.L: Quote, Profile, Research) has been left with few options to defend itself from Nasdaq Stock Markets Inc.'s (NDAQ.O: Quote, Profile, Research) unwanted attentions after British financial markets broker ICAP's (IAP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) decision not to pursue fresh merger talks, analysts said on Tuesday. Nasdaq is pressing ahead with a 2.7-billion-pound ($5.1-billion) offer for Europe's largest share market, announced on Monday, despite the LSE having rejected it. Sources familiar with the matter said the New York-based exchange has asked for the London Stock Exchange's shareholder register as it scrambles to send out its offer document, possibly as early as this week. And analysts say the LSE is finding itself increasingly cornered, having already rebuffed four takeover approaches from rivals Deutsche Boerse (DB1Gn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), Euronext (ENXT.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), Australia's Macquarie Bank (MBL.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) and a previous attempt by Nasdaq. "LSE has more limited means to counter this new bid than it had for the past offers," Elie Darwish, analyst at Exane BNP Paribas said in research note.
"We see no potential white knights for the LSE. As Nasdaq owns roughly 29 percent of the exchange it would be difficult for a third party to re-enter the race. LSE no longer has significant cash available to convince them not to support bidders." The LSE plans to wait until it needs to issue its first defense document under UK takeover battle rules, which is 14 days after Nasdaq launches its offer, before starting its formal defense against the offer, the sources familiar with the matter said. Meanwhile, Michael Spencer, the chief executive of ICAP, the world's biggest inter-dealer broker, said the company had no plans to re-engage in talks with the LSE. ICAP had held discussions over a possible combination earlier this year.
"The LSE has done a very good defensive job, it's played a blinder. But the options for the LSE are narrowing," said Spencer. Expect to see this deal close in the near future.
Source: Reuters.com

Labels: Deutsche Boerse, London Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Stocks

Shares of Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 2 percent before the bell on Tuesday as investors speculated that the company may be close to launching a cell phone encompassing some of the features of its highly popular iPod digital music player.
The stock rose to $87.90 in electronic trade, up from a Monday close of $86.47 on the Nasdaq.
On Monday, analysts said chip maker Broadcom Corp. (BRCM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) was likely to supply chips for the cell phone that Apple could launch in early 2007. Broadcom shares were up at $37.15 before the bell, up from a close of $37 on the Nasdaq on Monday.
Source: Reuters.com

Labels: AAPL, Apple Computer, BRCM, Broadcom, Nasdaq

U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Tuesday as cautious investors took few new positions before the Thanksgiving holiday, but shares of aircraft maker Boeing Co. (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Web search leader Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) soared to record highs, offsetting a jump in oil prices. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was up 2.88 points, or 0.02 percent, to end unofficially at 12,319.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 2.21 points, or 0.16 percent, to finish unofficially at 1,402.71. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 1.98 points, or 0.08 percent, to close unofficially at 2,454.70.
Source: Reuters.com

Labels: BA, Boeing, GOOG, Google, Growth, Nasdaq, NYSE Group, Stocks

Shares of Web Search leader Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday surged past the highly anticipated $500 milestone for the first time, continuing its strong climb since it became a public company in August 2004. The stock was last up 2 percent at $505.15 and ranked as the biggest advancer on the Nasdaq. Although expensive, this stock is still a buy and has atleast another 50 points ahead of it. If you can afford it, Google is a buy.
Source: Reuters.com

Labels: GOOG, Google, Nasdaq, Stocks

Nasdaq Stock Market Inc.'s (NDAQ.O: Quote, Profile, Research) $5.1 billion bid for the London Stock Exchange (LSE.L: