Jim Cramer's Mad Money Review

Investors should take a hard look at their portfolios and make some sales tomorrow after today's huge rally, Jim Cramer told viewers. Cramer advised selling into any future rallies to free up cash for the declines that are most certainly ahead. Get into position for the next big sale, he told viewers. He said today's 410-point rally in the Dow was entirely due to rumors that the federal government is considering a resolution mortgage trust to begin buying up bad home loans in an effort to rescue the U.S. banking system. Cramer said a resolution trust will not only put a floor in the housing market but is far more effective and inexpensive than the current plan of nationalizing entire companies. He said the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates to 1% to spur growth and add liquidity into the markets. He again urged the re-instatement of the uptick rule, which is designed to prevent relentless short-selling of companies. And finally, Cramer said regulation is needed to stop the credit default swap activity that companies have been engaging in. All of these things, said Cramer, are what the markets need to finally put the housing and financial crisis behind us.
The State of Housing - Pulte Homes (PHM)
Richard Dugas, president and CEO of Pulte Homes, talked about the state of the housing market. Dugas said he still feels there's a ways to go before the housing market hits bottom. He said that while the situation is improving, there is still a lot of excess home inventory that needs to be worked off. On the upside, Dugas confirmed that deposit cancellation rates, which peaked in 2007, have moderated so far in 2008. For would-be homeowners, Dugas said now is a great time to buy a home, citing low mortgage rates and depressed home values that make owning a home more attractive than renting. When questioned about Pulte's financials, Dugas said his company currently has one of the best balance sheets in the industry, with over $1 billion in cash. With the housing market still underselling the growth rate and pent-up demand for homes building, Cramer and Dugas agreed that now may be a great time to buy a home and shares of Pulte Homes.
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Labels: Jim Cramer, Mad Money, PHM

Homebuilders are getting gloomier about the slumping housing market, as a 22-year-old index that tracks their sentiment set a new record low Tuesday.
The National Association of Home Builders said its housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell two points to 18 in October, the lowest level since the index began in Jan. 1985. It was the eighth straight monthly decline.
The consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR was for a reading of 19.
Index readings higher than 50 indicate positive sentiment. The seasonally adjusted index has been below 50 since May 2006.
The report came as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, in a speech at Georgetown University's law school, said the housing market correction is persisting for longer than expected and appears likely to "continue to adversely impact our economy, our capital markets and many homeowners for some time yet."
Declines in builder confidence were seen across the country, except for the Midwest, which increased by two points but remained the weakest region nationwide.
Source: Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer

Labels: BZH, CTX, DHI, Homebuilders, HOV, KBH, LEN, PHM, RYL, TOL

This year's decline in existing home sales will be steeper than previously anticipated, a trade group for real estate agents predicted Wednesday.
The eighth straight downwardly revised forecast from the National Association of Realtors calls for U.S. existing home sales to be 10.8 percent below last year as housing market woes persist. Sales of new homes, meanwhile, are expected to finish 2007 at the lowest level in a decade.
The trade group's outlook for 2007 homes sales has grown more pessimistic through the year as foreclosures soared, credit market troubles developed and sales fell. Back in February, the group forecast an annual decline in existing home sales of only 0.6 percent.
In its October report, the association predicts 5.78 million existing homes will be sold in 2007, down from 6.48 million last year. Last month, the association predicted an 8.6 percent drop from a year ago.
This year's sales would be the lowest since 2002, when sales hit 5.63 million.
Sale prices for existing homes are forecast to drop 1.3 percent to a median of $219,000 this year -- a slight improvement from last month's prediction of a 1.7 percent decline. The median price refers to the point where half sold for more and half for less.
Next year, the trade group expects existing home sales to climb to 6.12 million. That is 2.4 percent lower than last month's prediction.
Source: Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer

Labels: BAC, BZH, CFC, DHI, Home Sales, KBH, LEN, MDC, PHM, SPF, TOL, WB, WFC, WM

The Fed's 50 point cut on Tuesday sparked the stock market, and CNBC's "Fast Money" discussed why the bulls are running, and what it means for financial stocks:Najarian: Tuesday's actions all about the financials. Financial Select Sector SPDR, ton of volume in call options.Macke: Can't be short financials now.Adami: continues to like financials; Lehman Brothers(LEH), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS)All Clear on Wall Street? CNBC's Charlie Gasparino discussed whether brokers are a buy now. Gasparino feels confident about most of the brokers except Bear Stearns (BSC)--lease diversed and tied to credit markets.OIL: Crude oil hit another record touching $81.51 and gold traded to $735, its highest level in 27 years. Author Dennis Gartman: Shocked by feds decision. Thinks stock market will continue to climb.Housing Market: Adami: housing stocks are back for a trade. He likes Hovanian, (HOV), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Pulte Homes (PHM)Finerman: Still likes Home Depot(HD), which she owns for its cheap valuation.Word on the Street: Cummings (CMI) and Caterpillar (CAT) exploded higher on the Fed cut. Najarian: Thinks CAT has much more upside to come.Global: China and Brazil's markets soared on the rate cuts. Tim Seymour, Principal at Red Star Asset Management, joined the crew to discuss the emerging markets. Seymour likes gold and Brazil ETF (EWZ)Face 2 Face:Viewer writes: "What happened to the recommendation to get out of gold if the Fed dropped its rates?" Adami reiterated his bearish stance on gold.Viewer writes: "Should I sell my October $195 call options on Goldman Sachs (GS) now or is there still more upside?" Najarian- feels strong about GS, but you should take half the position off before earnings.Viewer writes: "What is your outlook for Tiffany's (TIF) as the holiday season approaches?" Macke is positive about Tiffany's and Blue Nile (NILE)Pops & Drops:Pops: Macke-Caterpillar (CAT), Finerman-Target (TGT), Adami-Alcoa (AA)-could be bought out by Najarian's pick-Billiton (BHP), and Finerman-Wendy's (WEN)Drops: Najarian-E*Trade (ETFC), Macke-Hovnanian(DOG), Adami-Boeing(BA)Final Trade:Macke- Macy's (M)Finerman- Altria (MO)Adami- Nucor (NUE)Najarian- Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO)

Labels: BHP, BSC, CAT, CMI, CNBC, ETFC, EWZ, Fast Money, GS, HD, HOV, LEH, MS, NILE, PHM, SPDR, TGT, TIF, TOL, WEN

Housing stocks rose along with the broader market Tuesday after the U.S. central bank sharply cut its target interest rate for the first time in four years.
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by half a percentage point to 4.75 percent, exceeding expectations on Wall Street for a quarter-point cut. The bank said it made the move to prevent the housing market turmoil from causing more widespread economic problems.
The housing sector is in the third year of its worst contraction in 16 years. Earlier Tuesday, a reading of business sentiment among homebuilders matched its lowest level ever in September, primarily because builders are seeing record-low numbers of potential buyers.
The Fed's move makes it less expensive for mortgage lenders to borrow money to finance loans to home buyers, which should lower consumer borrowing rates. Investors expect that to boost demand among potential home buyers who had become priced out of the market for a home loan.
Here's a look at how shares of some major homebuilders fared in afternoon trading Tuesday .
D.R. Horton Inc. rose 63 cents, or 4.3 percent, to $15.15.
Pulte Homes Inc. rose 60 cent, or 3.7 percent, to $16.69
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. jumped $1.68, or 14.9 percent, to $13.02
Lennar Corp. rose 29 cents to $26
Centex Corp. rose 59 cents, or 2 percent, to $28.43
Toll Brothers Inc. rose 62 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $28.46
Published by AP

Labels: CTX, DHI, Federal Reserve, Hot Stocks, Housing Stocks, HOV, LEN, PHM, TOL

Doomsday Scenario: MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC - News), DR Horton (NYSE: DHI - News), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM - News) and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL - News)
Cramer created a doomsday scenario which probably will not happen, since the bank crisis in 1990 was "ten times worse" than the problems of today. However, he would avoid any companies which deal with borrowing and lending money, particularly housing: DHI, PHM and TOL. The only housing stock that isn't hopeless now is MDC, but Cramer would still not buy. He would also avoid financials amid bearish fears that loans will not be repaid and yields will shrink; "You can't own anything that even walks by a mortgage," Cramer warned. He would not touch companies which need financing for deals. However, Cramer added; "the worst-case scenario will be derailed," and the doom and gloom will not really materialize
If Ben will Budge: Centex (NYSE: CTX - News), Lennar (NYSE: LEN - News), Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC - News), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - News), Citigroup (NYSE: C - News)
Cramer discussed two scenarios which could reverse doomsday: overseas buyers and an interest rate cut. He is confident that if the Federal Reserve reduces rates by only one percent, housing will make a comeback (especially DHI, PHM, CTX, LEN), financials GS and C will recover and the Dow will jump to 15.
Playing it Safe: Celgene (NasdaqGS: CELG - News), Kellogg (NYSE: K - News), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB - News), Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS - News), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB - News), Amazon.com (NasdaqGS: AMZN - News), Google (NasdaqGS: GOOG - News), Apple (Other OTC: APPL.PK - News) and Research in Motion (NasdaqGS: RIMM - News)
Even if the Fed doesn't budge rates, investors can still create a safe portfolio consisting of CELG, K, SLB, MHS and KMB. He also directed viewers to his six wild bull markets: oil and oil services, agriculture, machinery, aerospace, infrastructure and minerals, and his four horse men of tech: AMZN, GOOG, APPL and RIMM.
Mad Mail: Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM - News), Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD - News), ValueClick Inc. (VLCK)
Cramer urged a mailer not to sell BAM, because it is an international company, unaffected by subprime woes, and is similar to Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway; "If you sold Warren Buffet because of a housing problem, forget it!" To a mailer concerned about RAD, Cramer said, "The integration is going very well. I'm holding your hand on RAD, and begging you not to sell it." Concerning VLCK's bad quarter, he commented, "I don't have my arms around it yet. To me, the stock looks like it's going to see $18, before you see a bottom."
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Labels: AMZN, BAM, BSC, C, CELG, CTX, DHI, GOOG, GS, Jim Cramer, K, KMB, LEN, MDC, MHS, PHM, RAD, RIMM, SLB, TOL

On Not Feeling at Home with Housing: D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI - News), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM - News), Lennar (NYSE: LEN - News), Centex (NYSE: CTX - News)
Cramer would not touch DHI, PHM or LEN, at least not with a long pole, after reading a report by Ivy Zelman of Credit Suisse during which she discussed her downgrade of Pulte and Horton and upgrade of Centex. Cramer comments DHI is "the most dangerous homebuilder" because it bought a gigantic amount of property in its quixotic delusion of "endless demand" and has the least written down on its property. Cramer would approve of shorting DHI and being long Centex. He says the problem with homebuilders is while "the rigor of the writedowns is clearly there, all the price targets are still way too high." He sees the potential of another leg down, and until more is written down on Horton and Pulte homes, he would not touch them on the long side.
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Labels: CTX, DHI, Hot Stocks, Jim Cramer, LEN, PHM, Wall Street Confidential

Dynegy (NYSE: DYN - News), Mirant (NYSE: MIR - News), NRG (NYSE: NRG - News), Foster Wheeler (NasdaqGS: FWLT): Cramer predicts DYN will go to $13 from $10 and comments CEO Bruce Williamson is "fabulous" and doesn't get enough credit. Although DYN has doubled, people are still not paying attention. He also likes FWLT as a great way to play nuclear and notes stocks like DYN and FWLT are no longer hostages to oil, which is declining while these names are on the rise. News that Mirant is for sale will bring up NRG, which is also doing well on a positive note from Jeffries, notes Cramer.
D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI - News) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM - News): Cramer praised Ivy Zelman of Credit Suisse for her downgrade of DHI and PHM and called her report "eye opening." In brief, her research indicated DHI and PHM "could go much lower, and book value seems to mean nothing." Zelman predicts a 15%-20% decline for homebuilders who haven't sufficiently reduced their land holdings.
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Labels: DHI, DYN, FWLT, Jim Cramer, MIR, NRG, PHM, Stop Trading

Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO - News), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG - News), Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: SUNW - News), AT & T (NYSE: T - News), Verizon (NYSE: VZ - News), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL - News), Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC - News), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP - News), Lennar (NYSE: LEN - News), Centex Corp (NYSE: CTX - News), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL - News), DR Horton (NYSE: DHI - News) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM - News)
Cramer described the "glass half full mode" in tech as the shorts were looking at options expiration last week. "We were confounded by the work off of the options hangover which then positioned tech to be too low and ready for a trade -- just a trade, but a trade is worth grabbing." He added that the fact that Yahoo is up even though the company "doesn't have a clue" will give hedge funds the impression that it will go up whether Yahoo is good or bad and will encourage the shorts to change their position. Cramer also noted that Google was up on Yahoo, and that SUNW is also up, but he doesn't think that the company is doing anything interesting. What Cramer does find interesting is AT & T's strategy, outlined in its conference call, to take customers away from Verizon wireless by offering free service for a 18 months to Apple's iPhone users. Cramer says that NSC's drop is a "false tell" because the company periodically messes up and then ramps. He predicts that UNP will reach $110 to $115 from a recent $97. The "infrastructure crumble" for trucks make the rails "superior to almost any other trend I've got." Cramer calls CTX a "bunch of idiots" because they, along with LEN, TOL, DR Horton and PHM were too bullish at the top. "None of these companies distinguished themselves as good businessmen," he said. "None of them turned out to be cautious." However, he likes the fact that these companies are not building more homes, and prefers being long land inventory than home inventory because land is selling.
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Labels: AAPL, CTX, DHI, GOOG, Jim Cramer, LEN, NSC, PHM, SUNW, T, TOL, UNP, VZ, YHOO