"What happened to all of the enthusiasm?" Jim Cramer asked the viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Thursday.
Just two days after the big market rally that had Cramer starting to think things were looking up, the market was hit by a trifecta of bad news that now has him scratching his head.
Cramer said there were clearly three things that crushed the hopes and dreams of Tuesday's rally. First, he said, were little six words from President Bush on the auto bailout: "I haven't made up my mind yet."
With the automakers' fate once again in limbo and the economy hanging in the balance, Cramer said it's no wonder the markets reversed course.
The second factor behind today's selloff was General Electric (
GE), which he also owns for his Action Alerts PLUS portfolio, coming under scrutiny from the debt rating agencies. "When one of the largest U.S. companies comes under fire, it doesn't instill confidence," he said.
Finally, Cramer said the markets were hit by the big collapse in oil prices. He said that while cheaper oil means less expensive gas and electricity, which is good for the economy, rapidly falling oil prices means global demand is still falling.
Oil, he said, is the thermometer for the world economy, the markets need to see oil prices stabilize and begin to bottom.
The oil crisis has affected Exxon-Mobil (
XOM) and Chevron (
CVX), which he also owns for his Action Alerts PLUS portfolio. The two comprise 14% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That means 62 points of today's decline came from the two stocks alone.
Cramer said his bottom line is that the Santa Clause rally hasn't come yet.
"Chemical companies are the biggest beneficiaries of cheaper oil," Cramer told viewers.
While industrial demand for chemicals is slowing down, it cannot compare to the speed at which these companies' raw costs are falling. Cramer said this fact makes some, but not all, chemical companies a buy.
Cramer compared the stocks of
PPG (PPG) and
Dow Chemical (DOW) to see which one came out on top. Both are accidentally high yielders, with PPG's dividend yielding 4.96% and Dow Chemical yielding 8.37%, but Cramer said PPG is the stock to own.
Size isn't everything, said Cramer. He said that while Dow has the larger yield, it's PPG that provides the safety. PPG's earnings estimates for 2009 are more than twice that of its expected dividend payout, a benchmark which Cramer said Dow Chemical can't match.
Cramer also likes PPG's businesses because only 24% of its income is derived from industrial chemicals and glass, and the rest from a unique blend of commodity and specialty chemicals and coatings.
Dow Chemical, on the other hand, also has a nice blend of plastics, chemicals and even exposure to agriculture, but with the company's acquisition of Roman & Haas, Cramer said the company ust can't guarantee its earnings. He said while the company is well run, there's just too much downside risk.
Sell Block
In the Thursday "Sell Block" segment, Cramer examined DuPont (DD) and concluded the chemical maker is the worst of the bunch of chemical companies.
Cramer said the company's 6.4% dividend yield may look attractive, but is in actuality the least stable. While the company has 30% of its profits derived from agriculture, a sector likely to do well under Obama, it also has 59% of its profits levered to autos, transports and other economically sensitive sectors.
Even worse, he noted, 22% of the company's profits are directly levered to autos, the worst industry in the world at the moment.
DuPont recently forecast an abysmal forth quarter, predicting a loss of 20 cents to 30 cents a share, while the Street was expecting a profit of 23 cents a share. The company also lowered guidance for all of 2009.
Cramer said if given the choice to own one chemical company, he'd much prefer the stock of PPG over Dow, and especially DuPont.
A Tough Market
In an exclusive interview, Cramer talked with jim Sinegal, president and CEO of retail giant Costco (COST), to see how the company is weathering the economic pullback.
Sinegal said Costco is fairing well in the recession since saving money is in the company's DNA. He called the current market conditions the most uncertain he's seen in his career, with consumer confidence at an all time low.
He said that customers are being a lot more careful with the money they spend, often opting for lesser expensive items.
Sinegal said the company's house brand, Kirkland, continues to do well as Costco is adding value to its offerings. He said that big suppliers still love Costco, despite the company's private label success.
When asked about premium brands at Costco's stores, Sinegal said the company continues to add higher-end merchandise, such as Waterford Crystal, to its offerings to much fanfare from its customers.
Cramer said there are two big bargains in retail, Costco and rival Walmart (WMT), a stock which he owns for his charitable trust.
Published By TheStreet.com
Labels: Chevron Corp., COST, Costco Wholesale Corp., CVX, DD, DOW, Dow Chemical Co., DuPont Co., Exxon Mobil Corp., GE, General Electric Co., Jim Cramer, Mad Money, Mad MOney Recap, PPG, Walmart, WMT, XOM